COVID-19 status & spread

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    COVID-19 status & spread

    I keep finding awesome graphs and tools for tracking this disease and figured I'll post em for the curious.

    Current status (as of Sunday, 3/15/20) in the US -- probably under-counted by 10-20x:



    And this NYTimes page (should be free to all) has a sweet tool for calculating eventual total deaths from the overall spread and fatality rate. What do you peeps think it's gonna be? Gonna infect 90% of the population with a 3% death rate and everyone will know a bunch of people who got wiped out? Or is it a great big hoax and won't hardly affect anyone, leaving us with a death toll lower than the seasonal flu?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-scenario.html

    Take a shot.

    My wild-assed guess is that we'll flatten a curve a bit with this whole societal shutdown (and economic depression) but at the end of it, 29% of the population will get infected and we'll push the death rate way down from the current world average of 3.6% to just 0.8%... just so long as the curve flattening avoids shortages of ventilators, of which we have only 60,000 nationwide. So, by the numbers:

    Infected...: 29%
    Death rate: 0.8%
    Total killed: 804,000

    That's by the end of the year.

  2. #2
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    Saw this

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    And this

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    Nice graphics, hadn't seen those.

    Found another one in the Economist with a list of treatment drugs and status, but unclear any of them will be available in the next couple months when we all need em:
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    the most worrying thing, at least for the moment, is that once infected you have about 50% of escape (green line) and 50% of die (white line)
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    U sure about that phil. That would put the death rate at 50% ratger than 3 percent

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    25 deaths in the USA were in a long term care home so that likely skews the death rate high.

    I'm guessing the death rate will fall below 1% in the US.

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    Unless they can hurry & get some meds that work or a vaccine i dont see this shit slowin down much . So many people still out doing the same shit. Bars are shut down so everyone is having house partys they dont give a shit.

    Went to the store today to stock up on some shit & didnt seem like anything has changed. Old people in scooters shoppin, kids runnin around crazy touchin everything. My guess is within a wk or 2 after st paddys day the # will skyrocket because theres to many people that cant refrain from fucking going out.





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    The numbers are so fucking off. They arent testing alot of people.

    Lets meet back here a wk or so after St Paddys day celebrations tonight. Everyone & there mother are passin it on as we speak while gettin loaded. Good fuckin luck with that.

    Plus its spring break for schools & colleges. Alot of bars are going around the mandated quarantine plus all the house partys

    Ya i say lets continue this count 10 -14 days from now.
    Thats when it will really matter. To see how much people are actually listening & trying to self quarantine. This shit is all up to the people for now until there is a vaccine. From what ive seen alot of people dont give a fuck.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Unlisted View Post
    The numbers are so fucking off. They arent testing alot of people.

    Lets meet back here a wk or so after St Paddys day celebrations tonight. Everyone & there mother are passin it on as we speak while gettin loaded. Good fuckin luck with that.

    Plus its spring break for schools & colleges. Alot of bars are going around the mandated quarantine plus all the house partys

    Ya i say lets continue this count 10 -14 days from now.
    Thats when it will really matter. To see how much people are actually listening & trying to self quarantine. This shit is all up to the people for now until there is a vaccine. From what ive seen alot of people dont give a fuck.

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    They cancelled the big saint patty’s day parade in my state and it’s a big one nit Boston but close in size to the amount of people that show up.

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    Governor just pushed a new law through, and this shit is hilarious. All companies in this state will now be forced to giving employees 7 paid sick days.... before we got 2 unpaid sick days. My company loves the dems, bet they’ll feel different now it’s hitting there wallets. We been fighting for paid sick time since before I came aboard, only took the apocalypse and a democratic mandate to get it done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by frank zazz View Post
    They cancelled the big saint patty’s day parade in my state and it’s a big one nit Boston but close in size to the amount of people that show up.
    Ya they did that here to & minimize all bars & gatherings to 10 people max but thats not stopping them. Still lots of house partys & bars are choosing pofits over health I have heard the police were patrolling the bars & siting the owners so we will see.

    Fuck its not that hard to stay home for a bit until this shit hopefully settles down some. Idk though sounds to me like we chasing a silient killer. How the fuck do u stop asymptomatic people from going to work & spreading the shit? I feel we got a long road a head of us .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milford King View Post
    Governor just pushed a new law through, and this shit is hilarious. All companies in this state will now be forced to giving employees 7 paid sick days.... before we got 2 unpaid sick days. My company loves the dems, bet they’ll feel different now it’s hitting there wallets. We been fighting for paid sick time since before I came aboard, only took the apocalypse and a democratic mandate to get it done.
    Nice its a start in the right direction. I heard they were tryin to find ways to getmoney in peoples pockets as fast as possible to help with bills & shit during the crisis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milford King View Post
    Governor just pushed a new law through, and this shit is hilarious. All companies in this state will now be forced to giving employees 7 paid sick days.... before we got 2 unpaid sick days. My company loves the dems, bet they’ll feel different now it’s hitting there wallets. We been fighting for paid sick time since before I came aboard, only took the apocalypse and a democratic mandate to get it done.
    I have 1 paid sick day for the whole year... and I’m union figure that out! They said it’s because of my hiring date last year.


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