My nigga Malt and the other brains of the forum

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  1. #1
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    My nigga Malt and the other brains of the forum

    I need a graph starting with NY highest number of deaths per day by cause if available from 2012 or so to as current as you can get it to compare to the virus numbers.
    Im getting pretty fucking tired of the media, especially CNN inducing panic in the American people. Yes, COVID is a problem but we have much worse. Fuckers.

  2. #2
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    like this?
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm


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    Found this over at the new york times.

    Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

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    pretty good info - especially flu deaths per year and respiratory deaths per year.
    If the media took this and broke it down by day for the public, it would put people in an even worse panic than right now.
    I acknowledge that COVID is an issue but if the stay in shelter is not working why keep killing the economy. As it appears now, those that will die will die whether we have shelter in place or not.
    TE=Phill;1674897]like this?
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm

    [/QUOTE]

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    I posted another thread with a nice tool to calculate deaths from coronavirus given your estimates of fatality rate and % of population that gets infected. That's the calculation that matters, not whether only 300 have died in NY state so far. I wondered how many peeps would have the balls to hazard a guess in that thread. It turned out to be a really low number.

    But anyway, give it a go. Then you'll see how the final numbers will compare to the annual toll from flu, heart disease, cancer, etc.

    http://www.anabolicsteroidforums.com...-status-spread

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    nerds...



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    Quote Originally Posted by Swiper View Post
    nerds...





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    and this is why I asked for malt
    Quote Originally Posted by chocolatemalt View Post
    I posted another thread with a nice tool to calculate deaths from coronavirus given your estimates of fatality rate and % of population that gets infected. That's the calculation that matters, not whether only 300 have died in NY state so far. I wondered how many peeps would have the balls to hazard a guess in that thread. It turned out to be a really low number.

    But anyway, give it a go. Then you'll see how the final numbers will compare to the annual toll from flu, heart disease, cancer, etc.

    http://www.anabolicsteroidforums.com...-status-spread

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    well 10% of the US population is 32.8 million- there is no way that many people will get infected. We are talking more like a maximum of 1% = 328k infected which I doubt we see but who knows- at a 1% death rate that would mean 3,280 deaths
    Quote Originally Posted by chocolatemalt View Post
    I posted another thread with a nice tool to calculate deaths from coronavirus given your estimates of fatality rate and % of population that gets infected. That's the calculation that matters, not whether only 300 have died in NY state so far. I wondered how many peeps would have the balls to hazard a guess in that thread. It turned out to be a really low number.

    But anyway, give it a go. Then you'll see how the final numbers will compare to the annual toll from flu, heart disease, cancer, etc.

    http://www.anabolicsteroidforums.com...-status-spread
    Last edited by lifter6973; 03-26-2020 at 04:53 PM.

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    corrected - in reality I believe this will end up being no more deadly in the US than the flu and COPD- it could indeed become just like the seasonal flu which we will need to vaccinate against every year
    Quote Originally Posted by lifter6973 View Post
    well 10% of the US population is 32.8 million- there is no way that many people will get infected. We are talking more like a maximum of 1% = 3.28 million infected which I doubt we see but who knows- at a 1% death rate that would mean 32,800 deaths which I also doubt we will see
    Last edited by lifter6973; 03-26-2020 at 04:59 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phill View Post
    trump seems skeptical?

    Skeptical ... the sentence before that statement was ‘the us infected numbers have surpassed china and yet the president at times seems skeptical... yeah, skeptical of China’s numbers and well skeptical of China themselves. Look what ‘they’ did to Italy, Spain and soon India...

    china, the president is skeptical of China... the same country that will kill you for telling the world the truth.

    fuck China. I’m working on getting equipment now to mass produce test raws and keep China out of the loop. Quit sending your synthetic drugs over here for these fucking wastes of skin idiots to overdose on... they take up space in the hospitals too. All those career unemployed types over doing it and wasting people’s time in order to save there worthless lives too.

    let’s talk about all the fucked up shit that gets ignored by mainstream media. Sure there’s a pandemic right now, and there sure as shit be another one too. Maybe these rich elite ass clowns in Washington DC and Hollywood will start using there spare change to fund things like .... cancer research, virology and development of new safer more efficient drugs to counteract the next pandemic.

    fuck China, fuck Hollywood and fuck all politicians across the board

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    edit:uploading photo

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    Eh. i think a lot of people will die personally but not the young and healthy... Death rate is still low because the hospitals havent became overcrowded yet. But it will change to a higher death rate 60 days from now once the hospitals overcrowd and they begin to reject people for treatment (mainly the old and weak since they will be first rejected from hospitals due to not being enough ventilators. ) For example, in Italy they reject anyone over 60 years old from their hospital and leave them to die.

    I also say a lot will die because lets not forget how unhealthy some americans are... 40% of Americans are chronically ill that’s 133 million people and 34% of Americans are above age 50 (111 million)
    But at the same time having a pre-existing condition isn't a death sentence either just increases the risk.

    It doesnt mean we should protect them. You don't need to isolate half the population. Half the population isn't likely to need ICU treatment. 80-90 % are mild cases of the Chinese virus... Just isolate the elderly and weak.Everyone else go back to work. The cure shouldnt be worse than the problem itself... We shouldnt sacrifice a small percentage of unhealthy /elderly people that have chronic illnesses due to their poor lifestyle with bad diet, smoking, no exercise etc and screw over millions of people financially that live a healthy lifestyle. Survival of the fittest literally in this case.


    But checkout this chart Lifter, it shows Italys numbers so far. As you can tell, its actually very rare for a young and healthy person to actually die from this. It happens, but I would contribute it to the fact that these young people had lack of sleep(overworked nurses in hospitals), or a bad diet or did drugs that the doctor didnt know about...

    The first detailed report on the Chinese virus deaths so far in Italy. Its got a couple of very interesting highlights:



    The age ranges of deaths: essentially non-existent for under 40s. 9 total people under 40. Of that 9, they tested 7 for underlying conditions, and 100% had them - either obesity, debates etc. Not a single healthy person under 40 has died from it.

    And here are the overall deaths, across all age ranges:



    Only 1.20% of Italian deaths, of all age ranges, had no underlying health conditions. It looks like its not only just not killing young people, its not killing healthy old people.

    https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav..._marzo_eng.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by lifter6973 View Post
    well 10% of the US population is 32.8 million- there is no way that many people will get infected. We are talking more like a maximum of 1% = 328k infected which I doubt we see but who knows- at a 1% death rate that would mean 3,280 deaths
    Bear in mind we've already got 1,700 deaths and this number is spiking upward daily. That's more than halfway to your 3,280 estimate. I think we'll be there in 3 more days... next Tues.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

    The epidemiologists estimate that with no action whatsoever, we'd expect to see 40-70% of the population eventually infected. Death rate likely to be 1-2% under the best conditions, maybe even <1% with miraculously sudden widespread testing and full medical care... but also quite possibly 8-10% if we continue to have no idea who's infected and the hospitals get overrun. That's the story in Italy and Spain today, and they haven't hit their peak yet. It could get far worse. That's what the US appears to be heading into.

    Those estimates are what changed Trump's mind and turned around the administration's policies.

    By comparison, a typical flu season hits ~20% of the population and has a ~0.1% fatality rate mostly via the same mechanisms and demographics as covid-19. And that's with immunization shots available.

    Originally I figured about 30% of the country would get the bug, but with the massive changes made the last couple weeks, I suspect we'll keep the infections below 10%. But the fatality rate could creep up to 2% as hospitals get stressed and start losing docs and nurses to infection, putting personnel, ICU beds, and ventilators in short supply.

    So, 10% of 330,000,000 =~ 33,000,000 infected, and 2% death rate is 660,000 dead. That's my throw at the dartboard. We'll see. Prediction of course is a guessing game but at this point I can't see how less than 10,000 or 20,000 is remotely possible. Even "only" 100,000 deaths would be seen as a victory.

    A test new testing game changer appears to be at hand, however. Cheap, accurate, fast, on-site tests from Abbott are being released and may be produced at 5,000,000 units/mo to start. This could allow real case tracking, isolation, and hunting down co-infectees. I think we'll want 100-200 million of these tests eventually. The obvious advantage here is that if we find and quarantine the actual cases, we'll no longer need to quarantine the entire population.

    https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-03...s-Five-Minutes

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