Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 1969

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    Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 1969

    Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 1969

    The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April, notching a record 103 straight months of job gains and signaling the current economic expansion shows little sign of stalling.

    The unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent, the Labor Department said Friday, the lowest since 1969. The official unemployment rate has been at or below 4 percent for more than a year. New Hampshire's unemployment rate, most recently reported for March, is 2.6 percent and has been below 3 percent for more than three years.

    ďThis is a gangbusters jobs report. Both the headline number of 263,000 new jobs and the low 3.6 percent unemployment rate show the strength of an already-strong labor market may even be accelerating,Ē said Tony Bedikian, whose Global Markets team at Citizens Bank helps companies manage interest rate, foreign exchange and commodity price risks. ďBoth equity and rate markets are viewing the labor data positively, at least in the short term. The wage component was slightly below expectations, but is still trending positively and will keep the Fed on their toes.Ē

    Hiring was strong across most sectors with especially large gains in business services (76,000 jobs added), construction (33,000 jobs added) and health care (27,000 jobs added). Economists were watching government employment closely since the U.S. Census is beginning to ramp up hiring ahead of the 2020 Census. The federal government added 12,500 jobs in April, which likely included some boost from the Census but isn't a large effect yet.

    "There is no denying this is a strong jobs report," said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. "The only number you can point (to) that looks disappointing is that manufacturing employment has stalled."

    The United States has more job openings than unemployed people, a situation some economists call "full employment" since most job seekers are able to land a job. Hispanic unemployment dropped to 4.2 percent in April, a record low since the Labor Department started measuring it in the 1970s.

    "The job market looks good on about any measure," said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. "While the unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969, a better measure is to look at the unemployment rate that includes people working part-time because they can't find a full-time job. That is low, but it's only the lowest since 2000."

    Low unemployment is forcing employers to raise pay and become more aggressive about hiring and training workers. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent in the past year, well above inflation, and lower wage workers enjoyed some of the largest gains as companies scrambled to fill jobs and many states have raised their minimum wage.

    Business leaders increasingly say their number one challenge is finding enough people to fill job openings. McClane Company is a large trucking and warehouse firm that specializes in moving food and grocery items around the country. They are advertising truck driving jobs for $70,000 a year and a $6,000 sign on bonus in Jessup, Pa., but even at that level of pay it's been tough to get enough people in the door.

    "The economy is good, but that's very difficult for employers," said Joe Stagnaro, president of McLane's Pennsylvania operations. "The people you want to hire are employed by someone else."

    Stagnaro decided to try something new in addition to the many internet job listings, billboards and newspaper ads that McLane uses to try to get the word out about openings. He just inked a deal with a truck driving school to train people to become truckers right on McLane's site with the company picking up the tab for all the training. He has had a lot of interest from the company's warehouse workers who are eager to learn more skills, earn a commercial driver's license and transition into a higher paying job.

    There's no official government measure of how much money companies are investing in training their own workers, but as unemployment remains low and wages rise, more and more managers say they are looking to grow talent internally instead of trying to poach it from other companies.

    The White House cheered the news as more proof President Donald Trump's stimulative policies of tax cuts and increased government spending are helping more Americans gain from the robust economy. Vice President Pence and National Economic Council head Larry Kudlow both stressed Friday that the economy is growing and wages are rising without triggering a worrisome increase in inflation.

    "You can grow the economy without inflation," Kudlow said.

    Rising inflation typically forces the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, which can cause a downturn. But with little sign of inflation, the Fed is on hold with no plans to change rates this year. Trump has repeatedly told the Fed to cut rates, but central bank leaders see little need to lower rates given how strong the economy looks right now.

    Many economists call the job market "spectacular" at the moment, although they note there are still some pockets of pain where people are struggling. The United States still has 4.7 million people stuck in part-time jobs who want full-time work and 1.2 million people who have been looking for work for over half a year.

    "In a tight labor market, we should be able to find everyone a decent job," said Susan Houseman, an economist and vice president of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. "As a country we need to think about how to improve our programs to get the chronically unemployed working again."

    Houseman urged politicians to focus on affordable child care and better transportation to help people get to work as well as expanding apprenticeships and job training programs, which can be done by both the public and private sectors.

    There has also been concern about the number of people working multiple jobs or feeling they had to have a "side gig" to make ends meet. According to the Labor Department, 5 million Americans work more than one job, a figure that hasn't changed much in recent years and remains lower than it was during the 1990s boom.

    The African-American unemployment rate is 6.7 percent, having ticked up since hitting a record low about a year ago. It remains more than double the rate for whites.

    "The unemployment rate isn't 3.6 percent for everybody," said William Rodgers, chief economist at the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. "This is a labor market that can still absorb more workers, especially young adults and minorities."
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    Im a trump fan. If only he stayed off Twitter, he would have locked down the next election (if he wanted it, that is)

    I donít know why anyone would want to be president anyways. Worst. Job. Eva.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GUNRACK View Post
    Im a trump fan. If only he stayed off Twitter, he would have locked down the next election (if he wanted it, that is)

    I donít know why anyone would want to be president anyways. Worst. Job. Eva.
    Iíd much rather be king/dictator. Fuck being el presidente!

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    Waiting for the Demoncrats of the board to chime in here with excuses for why this really does not matter.

    I really think Demoncrats would rather Americans were out of work, and the economy went into the toilet, just so they could attack the President and blame him (while they did nothing but make excuses during the Obama administration during periods of recession and slow growth).

    - - - Updated - - -

    "Average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent in the past year, well above inflation, and lower wage workers enjoyed some of the largest gains as companies scrambled to fill jobs and many states have raised their minimum wage."
    Good quote.

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    I lived my entire life inside a real estate bubble created by Wall Street morons with more money than sense. The economy looked great then too. And it never had a damn thing to do with which group of power-mad despots currently has their figurehead in the White House.

    Itís extremely difficult to analyze a complex system like the American economy accurately in real time. Iím happy the economy is doing well. Iím more insulated than most from itís fluctuations but Iím all for good numbers. But saying that any President has a significant effect on the economy just isnít acknowledging the reality of how it works.


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    Quote Originally Posted by malfeasance View Post
    Waiting for the Demoncrats of the board to chime in here with excuses for why this really does not matter.

    I really think Demoncrats would rather Americans were out of work, and the economy went into the toilet, just so they could attack the President and blame him (while they did nothing but make excuses during the Obama administration during periods of recession and slow growth).

    - - - Updated - - -

    "Average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent in the past year, well above inflation, and lower wage workers enjoyed some of the largest gains as companies scrambled to fill jobs and many states have raised their minimum wage."
    Good quote.
    They wouldnít care if the whole country was in poverty as long as ďtheir guyĒ was in office

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    Quote Originally Posted by GUNRACK View Post
    Im a trump fan. If only he stayed off Twitter, he would have locked down the next election (if he wanted it, that is)

    I donít know why anyone would want to be president anyways. Worst. Job. Eva.
    He already has the 2020 election locked down, who's gonna beat Creepy Uncle Joe?
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    The people have spoken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arnold View Post
    He already has the 2020 election locked down, who's gonna beat Creepy Uncle Joe?
    2020 will be a true show of hypocrisy, the left blasted trump for saying grab em by the pussy, guarantee not a word will be said about Bidenís creepy unwanted advances

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgmentalist View Post
    I lived my entire life inside a real estate bubble created by Wall Street morons with more money than sense. The economy looked great then too. And it never had a damn thing to do with which group of power-mad despots currently has their figurehead in the White House.

    Itís extremely difficult to analyze a complex system like the American economy accurately in real time. Iím happy the economy is doing well. Iím more insulated than most from itís fluctuations but Iím all for good numbers. But saying that any President has a significant effect on the economy just isnít acknowledging the reality of how it works.


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    Interesting response. Did anybody in this thread claim that the President has a significant effect on the economy? I can make the claim, if you like, so that you can make this rebuttal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by malfeasance View Post
    Interesting response. Did anybody in this thread claim that the President has a significant effect on the economy? I can make the claim, if you like, so that you can make this rebuttal.
    Fair enough, I hate when people talk around the issues I raise so they canít talk about what they want. I didnít actually notice I was doing that. Almost every other thread on this subject does make that claim though, which is why thatís what I thought I was hearing.


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    Quote Originally Posted by judgmentalist View Post
    Fair enough, I hate when people talk around the issues I raise so they canít talk about what they want. I didnít actually notice I was doing that. Almost every other thread on this subject does make that claim though, which is why thatís what I thought I was hearing.


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    . LOL! I had to go read the posts up above and make sure before I posted that . . .

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    But like it or not, the President gets the blame (good or bad) from the voters. Those in the president's party cheer and take credit, those in the other party claim it has nothing to do with the President or his policies (and this is true regardless of which party we are talking about), but enough Americans in the middle vote like this: good economy, retain the incumbent, bad economy, vote him out.

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    I am definitely a republican, but personally, the job market hasn't been worth a shit. I think these figures come from fast food jobs. None that pay worth a fuck.

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    ďPeter Schiff: It's The Same Economy; Nothing Has ChangedĒ


    Of course, Donald Trump tweeted about how great the job numbers were. Peter tweeted out a little reminder in response.

    "But I thought the official unemployment rate is a fraud, scam, hoax, etc. You said so many times yourself when campaigned against Obama's phony economy. Do you no longer care about discouraged workers who have left the labor force, or those involuntarily working part-time?"

    Many people are pointing to the jobs numbers as proof of a strong economy. But as Peter pointed out, there have been plenty of strong jobs reports over the last several years. In fact, there were many months during the Obama years when we saw more than 200k new jobs added to the economy. So, while Trump has pointed to these numbers as proof that he's fixed the economyÖ

    "It's the same economy. Nothing has actually changed."

    Peter pointed out some numbers hidden within the jobs report that weren't so encouraging. Average hourly earnings were only up 0.2. This is a non-inflation adjusted number. The average workweek ticked down from 34.5 hours to 34.4 hours.

    And consider the labor force participation number. When Trump took office, it stood at 62.9. It is now 62.8.

    "There has not been an increase. Despite all the talk about all of these workers coming off the sidelines that are now in the game - all these workers who are taking advantage of the opportunities in a booming economy - none of it's true. The labor force participation rate has not moved up at all since Donald Trump has become president."

    Peter also looked at the type of jobs that are being created. Trump promised a manufacturing renaissance. But the economy only added 4,000 manufacturing jobs out of the 280,000 jobs created last month.

    "This is another myth - that we have this vibrant manufacturing sector, that this protectionism is working, that the tariffs are working. They're not working. Manufacturing has not been revived. It is simply a matter of PR."

    There was also a loss of 12,000 retail jobs. It was the third consecutive month of job losses in the retail sector. Peter said it is a more ominous sign. It is not only bad for employment in that sector; it is also going to be a problem for commercial real estate.

    "This is going to be part of the coming real estate collapse that's going to be particularly hard felt in the commercial sector."

    Peter talked about some of the other economic data that came out Friday that got lost in the jobs headlines.

    The US continues to run tremendous trade deficits. The ISM manufacturing index also came in lower. It was projected to be rise from last month to 57.3, but it instead fell to 55.5. That's the lowest number in about 2 years. April auto sales were down 6.1%. It was the biggest month-on-month drop in eight years. Luxury home prices saw their biggest declines since 2010.

    "These jobs numbers are much more of a lagging indicator. Most of the forward-looking indicators are showing economic weakness."

    Peter also talked about the stock markets' reaction to the job numbers and the impact of the Federal Reserve.Ē

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